FK Tukums 2000 1-2 Valmiera / BSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
15%
+11.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-13.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -20%
0.94/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.09
-6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -11%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
251 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 83%
13.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
8.3 Crosses 28.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.08 xG 2.36
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
189 Passes 370
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 38
6 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-2 HT 1-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
21.08.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LETK
07.07.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 6-0 HT 3-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
17.05.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
06.04.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 4-3 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
23.10.2022 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-1 HT 1-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
1-2
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.62 xG 2.79
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 28
3 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 12
208 Passes 358
65% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 53
18 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs Valmiera / BSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS squeezed past FK Tukums 2000 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 42% of the ball to Valmiera / BSS's 58%, shots finished 10-28, expected goals 0.62 to 2.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Valmiera / BSS's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 2.17 for Valmiera / BSS.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs Valmiera / BSS?

FK Tukums 2000 1-2 Valmiera / BSS in the Latvia - Virsliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs Valmiera / BSS?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 27%, draw 23%, Valmiera / BSS 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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