UTC Cajamarca 3-2 Atletico Grau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.41/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.58
+9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.5 Crosses 15.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Atletico Grau
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
220 Passes 249
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 4-2 HT 1-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
21.04.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
23.07.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 3-1 HT 1-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
19.02.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
07.11.2020 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
19.10.2020 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 0-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
3-2
AWAY Atletico Grau
2.34 xG 0.58
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
174 Passes 334
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UTC Cajamarca squeezed past Atletico Grau 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had UTC Cajamarca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 37% of the ball to Atletico Grau's 63%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.34 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold UTC Cajamarca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Grau led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.33 for Atletico Grau.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau?

UTC Cajamarca 3-2 Atletico Grau in the Peru - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau?

Before kick-off our model rated a UTC Cajamarca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 44%, draw 30%, Atletico Grau 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UTC Cajamarca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UTC Cajamarca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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