Stal Rzeszow 4-2 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
46%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.68
No
58%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 33% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.2pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Rzeszow EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 55%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+60% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Rzeszow
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
28.10.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-1 HT 1-0 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Rzeszow
4-2
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stal Rzeszow vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Rzeszow beat Lechia Gdansk 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lechia Gdansk at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stal Rzeszow had 51% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 49%, shots finished 9-14.

What was the final score of Stal Rzeszow vs Lechia Gdansk?

Stal Rzeszow 4-2 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - 1st Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Rzeszow vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stal Rzeszow 27%, draw 27%, Lechia Gdansk 46%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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