Bayern München (K) 3-1 Freiburg (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.16
Draw
25%
7.13
Away
14%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
82%
-21.2pp
25%
Draw
12%
+13.7pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+7.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.8pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg (K) EU Bookmakers 8%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.27/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.59
-11% / +98% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -10%
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
475 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
20.0 Crosses 19.6
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern München (K)
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Freiburg (K)
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.98 xG 0.36
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
516 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 8
08.11.2024 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) 2-2 HT 2-0 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ALKB
05.02.2024 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 4-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) ALKB
15.09.2023 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ALKB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern München (K)
3-1
AWAY Freiburg (K)
2.05 xG 0.63
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
345 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bayern München (K) vs Freiburg (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern München (K) saw off Freiburg (K) 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern München (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Bayern München (K) had 55% of the ball to Freiburg (K)'s 45%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.05 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayern München (K) had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Bayern München (K) and 1.33 for Freiburg (K).

What was the final score of Bayern München (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Bayern München (K) 3-1 Freiburg (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern München (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Bayern München (K) 61%, draw 25%, Freiburg (K) 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern München (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern München (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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