Orense 1-0 Cumbaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 May 2024

📅27/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.7pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.0pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.32/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.35
-14% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
21.6 Crosses 11.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Cumbaya
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.20 xG 0.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
305 Passes 233
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
27.05.2023 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
23.07.2022 Orense Orense 3-1 HT 0-1 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
06.03.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
1-0
AWAY Cumbaya
1.50 xG 0.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
400 Passes 230
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orense vs Cumbaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense nicked a narrow win over Cumbaya 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Orense had 61% of the ball to Cumbaya's 39%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.50 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Orense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Orense and 0.50 for Cumbaya.

What was the final score of Orense vs Cumbaya?

Orense 1-0 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Cumbaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Orense 50%, draw 26%, Cumbaya 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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