Cittadella 1-2 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Sep 2024

Cittadella
1-2 HT 0-1
Frosinone
📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Cittadella vs Frosinone Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.13
6+ Goals
7%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 36% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.5
1/2
10%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
8%
5.05
X/2
11%
5.82
X/X
16%
4.18
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
13%
4.27
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.8pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cittadella v Frosinone — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cittadella EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.28/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.32
-13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
23.2 Crosses 19.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Cittadella vs Frosinone Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cittadella
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Frosinone
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.49 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
236 Passes 276
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 3-0 HT 1-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
10.09.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
27.02.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 3-0 HT 3-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.10.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
10.04.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
22.12.2020 Cittadella Cittadella 1-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB

Cittadella 1-2 Frosinone — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cittadella
1-2
AWAY Frosinone
0.95 xG 1.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
269 Passes 307
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 27
30 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cittadella vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone nicked a narrow win over Cittadella 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Frosinone made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cittadella had 50% of the ball to Frosinone's 50%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.95 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cittadella had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cittadella and 0.67 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Cittadella vs Frosinone?

Cittadella 1-2 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie B on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cittadella vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cittadella win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cittadella 37%, draw 30%, Frosinone 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cittadella) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →