Vitesse 1-2 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 27 Sep 2025

Vitesse
1-2 HT 0-1
Willem II
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

Vitesse vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
47%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
22.1
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
11%
7.19
X/2
12%
4.7
X/X
8%
5.5
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
22%
2.66
2/X
8%
13.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.1 — our 13% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.2pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitesse v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 51%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.30/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.94
-20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
15.2 Crosses 17.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Vitesse vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Willem II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.40 xG 0.88
57% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 Passes 252
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.04.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
22.08.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 0-3 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL
21.03.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
17.12.2020 Willem II Willem II 0-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOK
31.10.2020 Willem II Willem II 1-3 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
10.08.2019 Willem II Willem II 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Vitesse 1-2 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
1-2
AWAY Willem II
1.70 xG 1.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
387 Passes 316
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II edged past Vitesse 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitesse had 54% of the ball to Willem II's 46%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.70 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitesse and 0.83 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs Willem II?

Vitesse 1-2 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 31%, draw 22%, Willem II 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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