Portadown FC 2-1 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
47%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
3.53
6+ Goals
8%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.5
1/2
12%
23.6
1/X
9%
17.0
X/1
12%
10.5
X/2
14%
3.72
X/X
12%
5.29
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.04
2/X
8%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+4.8pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.7pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-11.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+12.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-12.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portadown FC EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 62%
+13% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.11/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.59
-1% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +56%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
224 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portadown FC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Larne FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
37% Ball Possession 63%
4 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
24.01.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
12.11.2022 Portadown FC Portadown FC 0-5 HT 0-2 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
17.09.2022 Portadown FC Portadown FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
29.01.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 4-0 HT 1-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
27.11.2021 Portadown FC Portadown FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
04.09.2021 Portadown FC Portadown FC 2-3 HT 0-2 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Portadown FC vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portadown FC edged past Larne FC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Larne FC at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Portadown FC and 2.83 for Larne FC.

What was the final score of Portadown FC vs Larne FC?

Portadown FC 2-1 Larne FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portadown FC vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Portadown FC 23%, draw 30%, Larne FC 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Larne FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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