UPDF vs Uganda Police Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UPDF v Uganda Police — Team-Based Signals
UPDF vs Uganda Police Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-2
HT 0-2
UPDF
UGA
0-1
HT 0-0
Uganda Police
UGA
UPDF 2-2 Uganda Police — Actual Match Statistics
UPDF and Uganda Police shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.
Our pre-match lean was UPDF at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, UPDF had 51% of the ball to Uganda Police's 49%, shots finished 10-9.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Uganda Police led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UPDF and 1.50 for Uganda Police.
What was the final score of UPDF vs Uganda Police?
UPDF 2-2 Uganda Police in the Uganda - Premier League on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UPDF vs Uganda Police?
Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split UPDF 41%, draw 34%, Uganda Police 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.