Estoril 4-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Dec 2025

📅27/12/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.07
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.07
X/2
10%
6.94
X/X
16%
4.55
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
17%
5.01
2/X
5%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.31/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.33
+36% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / +31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
17.9 Crosses 14.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
4-1
AWAY Alverca
1.47 xG 0.82
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
553 Passes 263
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril swept aside Alverca 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Estoril made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Estoril had 64% of the ball to Alverca's 36%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.47 to 0.82.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Alverca?

Estoril 4-1 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Estoril 40%, draw 27%, Alverca 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Estoril) ✓ BTTS Yes
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