28/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-0
Progresso vs Calcio Certaldo Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
60%
Over
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
No Pick
62%
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
40%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
24%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
35%
Home Win
27%
32%
Draw
29%
34%
Away Win
44%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progresso v Calcio Certaldo — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Progresso
The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY
Calcio Certaldo
The Market 48%
+66% /
+66%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-16%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
52%
Ball Possession
48%
15
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
277 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
351 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
5.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Progresso vs Calcio Certaldo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Progresso squeezed past Calcio Certaldo 1-0.
Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Progresso found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Progresso vs Calcio Certaldo?
Progresso 1-0 Calcio Certaldo in the Italy - Serie D on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progresso vs Calcio Certaldo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Progresso win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Progresso 35%, draw 32%, Calcio Certaldo 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progresso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Progresso)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
28 Jan 2024