Macarthur 2-2 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 28 Jan 2024

Macarthur
2-2 HT 1-0
Perth Glory
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Perth Glory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.63
Over 2.5
60%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.18
2-3 Goals
36%
2.07
4-5 Goals
29%
2.5
6+ Goals
14%
5.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.33
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.67
X/2
9%
8.21
X/X
7%
6.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.45
2/2
14%
5.0
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
34%
+5.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
66%
-5.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.9pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Perth Glory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
2.10/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.54
-37% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
23.7 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Macarthur vs Perth Glory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.79 xG 1.31
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
308 Passes 438
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-2 HT 0-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.07.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-4 HT 0-3 Macarthur Macarthur AVUK
01.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.12.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
03.04.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 4-2 HT 1-2 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.02.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-1 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 2-2 Perth Glory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
2-2
AWAY Perth Glory
2.07 xG 2.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 11
440 Passes 444
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Perth Glory shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 49% of the ball to Perth Glory's 51%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 2.07 to 2.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Macarthur and 1.17 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Perth Glory?

Macarthur 2-2 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 48%, draw 23%, Perth Glory 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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