Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Aruko Sports — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paranaense 1, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
Over
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
38%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
32%
+12.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
31%
Away Win
41%
-9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Aruko Sports The Market 45%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
0.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-100% / -74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aruko Sports
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.01.2023 Aruko Sports 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRPR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2-1
AWAY Aruko Sports
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Aruko Sports
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense squeezed past Aruko Sports 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 62% of the ball to Aruko Sports's 38%, shots finished 21-8.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Aruko Sports?

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Aruko Sports in the Brazil - Paranaense 1 on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Aruko Sports?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 45%, draw 24%, Aruko Sports 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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