Bellinzona 0-1 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.39
6+ Goals
8%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 32% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.9pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -16%
1.91/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.70
-53% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 71%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.0 Crosses 14.4
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vaduz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.97 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
240 Passes 212
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 1-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
22.09.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-4 HT 0-1 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
16.04.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-6 HT 0-4 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
12.03.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 0-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
30.10.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 2-0 HT 2-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
07.08.2022 Vaduz Vaduz 2-3 HT 0-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
0-1
AWAY Vaduz
0.42 xG 1.22
58% Ball Possession 42%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
368 Passes 226
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vaduz squeezed past Bellinzona 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bellinzona at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bellinzona had 58% of the ball to Vaduz's 42%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.42 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bellinzona and 2.50 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Vaduz?

Bellinzona 0-1 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 42%, draw 27%, Vaduz 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bellinzona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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