Queretaro 4-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.42/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.63
-10% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.7 Crosses 20.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
235 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 4-1 HT 2-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
11.03.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
12.08.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
18.03.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
03.08.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
15.03.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
4-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
2.54 xG 0.83
29% Ball Possession 71%
21 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
151 Passes 465
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro cruised past Atletico San Luis 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Queretaro made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Queretaro had 29% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 71%, shots finished 21-18, expected goals 2.54 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Queretaro and 1.67 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Atletico San Luis?

Queretaro 4-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 36%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 38%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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