North Geelong Warriors 2-1 Melbourne Srbija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AVPL1, 28 Feb 2026

North Geelong Warriors
2-1 HT 0-1
Melbourne Srbija
📅28/02/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
AVPL1 – 2026

North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.29
Over 2.5
46%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.43
No
51%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
40%
+14.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
60%
-14.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
66%
-16.9pp
51%
BTTS No
34%
+16.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Geelong Warriors v Melbourne Srbija — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Geelong Warriors EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Srbija EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Geelong Warriors squeezed past Melbourne Srbija 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day North Geelong Warriors made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija?

North Geelong Warriors 2-1 Melbourne Srbija in the AVPL1 on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Geelong Warriors win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split North Geelong Warriors 39%, draw 25%, Melbourne Srbija 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Geelong Warriors) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (North Geelong Warriors) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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