Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.5pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +58% / +58%
1.54/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.35
+12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
19.9 Crosses 6.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1-2
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
0.96 xG 0.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
248 Passes 344
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 7
29 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Comerciantes Unidos nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Garcilaso at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 44% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 56%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 0.96 to 0.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 54%, draw 21%, Comerciantes Unidos 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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