Durban City 1-0 Upington City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.5pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.7pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+1.9pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Durban City EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Upington City EU Bookmakers 18%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.03/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.16
+47% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
420 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Durban City
1-0
AWAY Upington City
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Durban City vs Upington City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Durban City edged past Upington City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Durban City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Durban City had 61% of the ball to Upington City's 39%, shots finished 19-7.

What was the final score of Durban City vs Upington City?

Durban City 1-0 Upington City in the South Afrika - 1st Division on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Durban City vs Upington City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Durban City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Durban City 51%, draw 30%, Upington City 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Durban City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Durban City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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