FK Sarajevo 3-0 Velez Mostar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Sarajevo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Mostar EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.16/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.94
-25% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Sarajevo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Velez Mostar
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
28.08.2023 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
12.03.2023 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 0-1 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
19.09.2022 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 1-1 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
27.05.2022 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
19.05.2022 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Sarajevo
3-0
AWAY Velez Mostar
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
POST-MATCH FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Sarajevo cruised past Velez Mostar 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FK Sarajevo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FK Sarajevo had 44% of the ball to Velez Mostar's 56%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Mostar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FK Sarajevo and 1.00 for Velez Mostar.

What was the final score of FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar?

FK Sarajevo 3-0 Velez Mostar in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Sarajevo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FK Sarajevo 45%, draw 24%, Velez Mostar 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Sarajevo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FK Sarajevo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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BOSN More Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League
28 Apr 2024
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