Cuiaba 1-0 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.51
Over
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.19
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5
17%
5.13
6+
7%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.56/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/1.16
+28% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
19.6 Crosses 8.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-0
AWAY Ferroviaria
1.11 xG 1.03
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 7
286 Passes 343
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba edged past Ferroviaria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cuiaba as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Cuiaba had 47% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 53%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.11 to 1.03.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Ferroviaria?

Cuiaba 1-0 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cuiaba win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 46%, draw 28%, Ferroviaria 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cuiaba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cuiaba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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