Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Umm Salal v Al Markhiya — Team-Based Signals
Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Al Markhiya
KAT
2-3
HT 1-1
Umm Salal
KAT
1-2
HT 1-2
Al Markhiya
KAT
Umm Salal 2-1 Al Markhiya — Actual Match Statistics
Umm Salal squeezed past Al Markhiya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Umm Salal as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 0.71 to 0.69.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Umm Salal and 1.67 for Al Markhiya.
What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya?
Umm Salal 2-1 Al Markhiya in the Qatar League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya?
Before kick-off our model rated a Umm Salal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 43%, draw 25%, Al Markhiya 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Umm Salal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.