Umm Salal 2-1 Al Markhiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.0
Over
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.57
2-3
36%
1.8
4-5
23%
3.13
6+
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.57 — our 31% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Markhiya EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.45/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.76
-25% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
285 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
15.1 Crosses 10.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Markhiya
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.73 xG 0.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
334 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KAT
15.04.2023 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya 2-3 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
25.02.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 1-2 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Umm Salal
2-1
AWAY Al Markhiya
0.71 xG 0.69
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 11
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal squeezed past Al Markhiya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Umm Salal as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 0.71 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Umm Salal and 1.67 for Al Markhiya.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya?

Umm Salal 2-1 Al Markhiya in the Qatar League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Markhiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Umm Salal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 43%, draw 25%, Al Markhiya 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Umm Salal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Umm Salal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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