Degerfors 1-1 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 28 May 2024

Degerfors
1-1 HT 0-0
Varbergs
📅28/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Degerfors vs Varbergs Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.02
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
15%
3.91
X/2
6%
10.45
X/X
13%
5.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.45
2/2
12%
7.79
2/X
5%
16.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Degerfors v Varbergs — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Degerfors EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
1.89/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/2.02
+7% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
POST-MATCH Degerfors vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Degerfors and Varbergs couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Degerfors at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

What was the final score of Degerfors vs Varbergs?

Degerfors 1-1 Varbergs in the Sweden - Superettan on 28/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Degerfors vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Degerfors win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Degerfors 51%, draw 24%, Varbergs 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Degerfors), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Degerfors) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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