NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 28 May 2024

NAC Breda
6-2 HT 3-2
Excelsior
📅28/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

NAC Breda vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.45
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
15%
8.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.33
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.51
X/2
10%
5.92
X/X
10%
5.42
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
19%
3.68
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.4pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 39%
-12% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.18/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.91
-16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.7 Crosses 19.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

NAC Breda vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.09 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
369 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.07.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
06.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
01.10.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
23.04.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
03.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
31.01.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
6-2
AWAY Excelsior
3.71 xG 1.34
61% Ball Possession 39%
34 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
412 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
44 Box Touches 17
35 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 6-2. Half-time: 3-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day NAC Breda made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 61% of the ball to Excelsior's 39%, shots finished 34-9, expected goals 3.71 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Excelsior?

NAC Breda 6-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 28/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 39%, draw 24%, Excelsior 37%. The final score 6-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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