America Mineiro 2-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Jul 2025

📅28/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.40/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.33
+23% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / -37%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.6 Crosses 18.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 1.31
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
297 Passes 358
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.10.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-2 HT 3-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
11.06.2023 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
22.08.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
30.04.2022 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
11.09.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
31.05.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.50 xG 1.02
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
353 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro and Atletico Paranaense shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was America Mineiro at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, America Mineiro had 54% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 46%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.50 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for America Mineiro and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense?

America Mineiro 2-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 41%, draw 29%, Atletico Paranaense 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5
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