Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - ÖFB Cup, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
45%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
45%
Away Win
51%
-6.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ried EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.00
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
253 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ried
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.78 xG 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
239 Passes 314
65% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU
06.08.2022 Ried Ried 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.03.2022 Ried Ried 2-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
27.10.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 0-1 Ried Ried AUK
17.10.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU
09.02.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ried
1-3
AWAY Sturm Graz
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ried vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz saw off Ried 3-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Ried had 54% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 46%, shots finished 21-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ried and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Ried vs Sturm Graz?

Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz in the Austria - ÖFB Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ried vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ried 29%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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