AGF Aarhus 2-2 Randers FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 28 Sep 2024

AGF Aarhus
2-2 HT 1-1
Randers FC
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Denmark - Süperlig – 2024/2025

AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.68 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.82
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
10%
7.04
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
9%
5.23
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AGF Aarhus v Randers FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Randers FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.58/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.56
+17% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
339 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.2 Crosses 19.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Randers FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.70 xG 0.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
319 Passes 313
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
24.09.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
30.05.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.04.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
13.03.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-2 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Randers FC Randers FC DAN

AGF Aarhus 2-2 Randers FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-2
AWAY Randers FC
1.94 xG 0.30
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
337 Passes 251
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Randers FC shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 56% of the ball to Randers FC's 44%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.94 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.83 for Randers FC.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC?

AGF Aarhus 2-2 Randers FC in the Denmark - Süperlig on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Randers FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 45%, draw 29%, Randers FC 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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