El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Paso Locomotive v North Carolina — Team-Based Signals
El Paso Locomotive 1-0 North Carolina — Actual Match Statistics
El Paso Locomotive edged past North Carolina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was North Carolina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 60% of the ball to North Carolina's 40%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.13 to 0.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Paso Locomotive's control.
What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina?
El Paso Locomotive 1-0 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina?
Before kick-off our model rated an North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 29%, draw 29%, North Carolina 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (North Carolina), Over 2.5 went the other way.