El Paso Locomotive 1-0 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.03
Over Pick
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.81
2-3
38%
1.83
4-5
26%
3.21
6+
8%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 48%
-15% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.23/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.63
-31% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
17.4 Crosses 19.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 0.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1-0
AWAY North Carolina
2.13 xG 0.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
431 Passes 271
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive edged past North Carolina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was North Carolina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 60% of the ball to North Carolina's 40%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.13 to 0.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Paso Locomotive's control.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina?

El Paso Locomotive 1-0 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated an North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 29%, draw 29%, North Carolina 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (North Carolina), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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