Young Boys 4-2 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.33
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
6.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.38
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
20%
4.8
X/2
9%
8.31
X/X
9%
6.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.75
2/2
6%
5.5
2/X
9%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.7pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.0pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Boys EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 29%
+18% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
2.19/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.39
+66% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
21.8 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Boys
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Thun
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.28 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 Passes 284
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.02.2023 Thun Thun 0-5 HT 0-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSVK
08.07.2020 Young Boys Young Boys 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV
23.06.2020 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
27.10.2019 Young Boys Young Boys 4-2 HT 2-1 Thun Thun İSV
25.09.2019 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
07.04.2019 Young Boys Young Boys 5-1 HT 4-0 Thun Thun İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Boys
4-2
AWAY Thun
1.41 xG 1.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
242 Passes 200
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Young Boys vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Young Boys beat Thun 4-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Young Boys as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Young Boys had 53% of the ball to Thun's 47%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.41 to 1.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Thun.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Young Boys had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Young Boys and 0.83 for Thun.

What was the final score of Young Boys vs Thun?

Young Boys 4-2 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Boys vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Young Boys 53%, draw 24%, Thun 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Young Boys), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Young Boys) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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