Valladolid 3-1 Racing Santander — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
12%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.34
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
12%
4.01
X/2
9%
8.65
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
10%
6.89
2/X
7%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.9pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Santander EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.60/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.34
+22% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.3 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Racing Santander
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.33 xG 1.88
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
417 Passes 203
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
11.11.2023 Racing Santander Racing Santander 2-3 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
27.07.2019 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander HAZ
07.02.2015 Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-4 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
07.09.2014 Valladolid Valladolid 3-1 HT 1-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS2
08.05.2010 Valladolid Valladolid 2-1 HT 0-1 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS1
17.01.2010 Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-1 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
3-1
AWAY Racing Santander
1.21 xG 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
338 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Racing Santander
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid beat Racing Santander 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valladolid as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Valladolid had 53% of the ball to Racing Santander's 47%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.21 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valladolid had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Valladolid and 1.00 for Racing Santander.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Racing Santander?

Valladolid 3-1 Racing Santander in the Spain - 2nd Division on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Racing Santander?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 45%, draw 28%, Racing Santander 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valladolid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →