Criciuma 2-0 Hercilio Luz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Catarinense 1, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hercilio Luz EU Bookmakers 22%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.89/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.73
-47% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +79%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Hercilio Luz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2023 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz 2-1 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRCAT1
25.03.2023 Criciuma Criciuma 2-0 HT 2-0 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz BRCAT1
09.02.2023 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
2-0
AWAY Hercilio Luz
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Hercilio Luz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma got the better of Hercilio Luz 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Criciuma as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Criciuma had 50% of the ball to Hercilio Luz's 50%, shots finished 17-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Criciuma and 0.67 for Hercilio Luz.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Hercilio Luz?

Criciuma 2-0 Hercilio Luz in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Hercilio Luz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 51%, draw 25%, Hercilio Luz 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Criciuma), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Criciuma) ✓ Under 2.5
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