Brezilya U23 2-1 Ekvador U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-9.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya U23 EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ekvador U23 EU Bookmakers 22%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 70%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya U23
2-1
AWAY Ekvador U23
1.92 xG 0.18
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
471 Passes 269
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 6
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brezilya U23 vs Ekvador U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya U23 nicked a narrow win over Ekvador U23 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Brezilya U23 as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Brezilya U23 had 61% of the ball to Ekvador U23's 39%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.92 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brezilya U23's control.

What was the final score of Brezilya U23 vs Ekvador U23?

Brezilya U23 2-1 Ekvador U23 in the CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya U23 vs Ekvador U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Brezilya U23 48%, draw 28%, Ekvador U23 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya U23), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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