Blackburn Rovers 4-1 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 29 Jan 2024

Blackburn Rovers
4-1 HT 3-1
Wrexham
📅29/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.45
2-3 Goals
42%
2.11
4-5 Goals
27%
2.5
6+ Goals
11%
5.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.99
1/2 EV+ ✗
14%
34.0
1/X
4%
14.3
X/1
14%
4.31
X/2
4%
10.25
X/X
14%
6.92
2/1
4%
18.8
2/2
9%
6.45
2/X
4%
14.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 14% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.4pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blackburn Rovers EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 25%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.36/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.93
-74% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
37.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
19.0 Crosses 21.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Blackburn Rovers 4-1 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blackburn Rovers
4-1
AWAY Wrexham
2.10 xG 0.37
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
674 Passes 256
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 9
14 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Blackburn Rovers swept aside Wrexham 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Blackburn Rovers as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Blackburn Rovers had 68% of the ball to Wrexham's 32%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.10 to 0.37.

What was the final score of Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham?

Blackburn Rovers 4-1 Wrexham in the England - FA Cup on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Blackburn Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Blackburn Rovers 51%, draw 21%, Wrexham 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Blackburn Rovers), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Blackburn Rovers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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