San Lorenzo 1-0 Independiente Chivilcoy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Cup, 29 Feb 2024

📅29/02/2024 · 🕒03:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
2.07
Over
42%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.71
2-3
47%
1.82
4-5
16%
3.27
6+
8%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.71 — our 29% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
San Lorenzo win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
60%
Home Win
73%
-12.3pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.8pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+13.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-13.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.3pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Chivilcoy The Market 12%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.74/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
-18% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -38%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 66%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.5 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Independiente Chivilcoy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Lorenzo nicked a narrow win over Independiente Chivilcoy 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had San Lorenzo as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Independiente Chivilcoy?

San Lorenzo 1-0 Independiente Chivilcoy in the Argentina - Cup on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Independiente Chivilcoy?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 60%, draw 24%, Independiente Chivilcoy 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Lorenzo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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