Marilia 3-0 Desportivo Brasil — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A3, 29 Feb 2024

Marilia
3-0 HT 1-0
Desportivo Brasil
📅29/02/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Paulista A3 – 2024

Marilia vs Desportivo Brasil Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
Over
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No Pick
59%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.1pp
22%
Draw
28%
-6.3pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marilia v Desportivo Brasil — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marilia The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Desportivo Brasil The Market 38%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
-46% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +67%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Marilia 3-0 Desportivo Brasil — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marilia
3-0
AWAY Desportivo Brasil
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Marilia vs Desportivo Brasil
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marilia cruised past Desportivo Brasil 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 22% / 38%) promised a tight game; Marilia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Marilia had 55% of the ball to Desportivo Brasil's 45%, shots finished 16-6.

What was the final score of Marilia vs Desportivo Brasil?

Marilia 3-0 Desportivo Brasil in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marilia vs Desportivo Brasil?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marilia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Marilia 40%, draw 22%, Desportivo Brasil 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marilia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marilia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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