Adelaide United 4-1 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 29 Mar 2024

Adelaide United
4-1 HT 1-0
Western United
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.17
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.32
No
43%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
8.39
2-3 Goals
35%
2.36
4-5 Goals
28%
2.38
6+ Goals
14%
4.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.54
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.25
X/2
15%
7.63
X/X
12%
7.15
2/1
6%
18.65
2/2
12%
4.21
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
72%
-14.7pp
43%
BTTS No
28%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -19%
2.42/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.72
+14% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
36.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
26.0 Crosses 19.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Adelaide United vs Western United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Western United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 1.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
412 Passes 356
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 32
27 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
16.04.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-1 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
11.02.2023 Western United Western United 2-3 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
06.11.2022 Western United Western United 2-4 HT 0-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
08.05.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
17.12.2021 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 4-1 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
4-1
AWAY Western United
2.02 xG 1.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
312 Passes 432
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United swept aside Western United 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Adelaide United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Adelaide United had 43% of the ball to Western United's 57%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.02 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Adelaide United and 1.33 for Western United.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Western United?

Adelaide United 4-1 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 44%, draw 22%, Western United 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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