Lille 2-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 29 Mar 2024

Lille
2-1 HT 1-0
Lens
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lille vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.07
6+ Goals
10%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.61
X/2
14%
6.79
X/X
12%
4.18
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
10%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.55/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.54
-6% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.7 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Lille vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lens
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 1.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
394 Passes 352
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
04.03.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
09.10.2022 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
16.04.2022 Lille Lille 1-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
04.01.2022 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FRK
18.09.2021 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 2-1 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
2-1
AWAY Lens
1.59 xG 0.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
356 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lille vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille nicked a narrow win over Lens 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lille had 49% of the ball to Lens's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.59 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lille and 1.17 for Lens.

What was the final score of Lille vs Lens?

Lille 2-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lille 44%, draw 26%, Lens 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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