FS Jelgava 0-1 Metta / LU Riga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 29 Mar 2024

FS Jelgava
0-1 HT 0-1
Metta / LU Riga
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Latvia - Virsliga – 2024

FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
30%
+10.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.3pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FS Jelgava v Metta / LU Riga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 46%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.23/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.16
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.4
15.0 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
196 Passes 347
62% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
31.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.05.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-3 HT 1-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
15.04.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 2-1 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
04.10.2020 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
03.08.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-1 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET

FS Jelgava 0-1 Metta / LU Riga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
0-1
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
0.85 xG 0.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
400 Passes 203
79% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metta / LU Riga squeezed past FS Jelgava 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Metta / LU Riga found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 60% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 40%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.85 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.00 for Metta / LU Riga.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga?

FS Jelgava 0-1 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 40%, draw 27%, Metta / LU Riga 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FS Jelgava) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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