Monarcas Morelia 3-4 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.59
Over 2.5
52%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.8pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+8.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
59%
-11.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
41%
+11.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.4pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 32%
-18% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.04/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.19
-24% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Venados
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
10.11.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
20.10.2023 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
27.01.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
30.07.2022 Venados Venados 0-2 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
08.04.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-2 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
16.09.2021 Venados Venados 0-1 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados edged past Monarcas Morelia 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Venados made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 0.83 for Venados.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Venados?

Monarcas Morelia 3-4 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated an Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 36%, draw 27%, Venados 37%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venados), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Venados) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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