Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 Adelaide United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 29 Mar 2025

Melbourne Victory (K)
2-1 HT 0-0
Adelaide United (K)
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒08:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Adelaide United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 28%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.42/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.59
+45% / +115% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 73%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
15.0 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.47 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
318 Passes 264
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
10.03.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 1-4 HT 0-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
21.12.2018 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 3-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 Adelaide United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
2-1
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
1.26 xG 1.06
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
278 Passes 315
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) edged past Adelaide United (K) 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 47% of the ball to Adelaide United (K)'s 53%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.26 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 1.20 for Adelaide United (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 Adelaide United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 48%, draw 25%, Adelaide United (K) 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
29 Mar 2025
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