TPS Turku 3-2 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykköscup, 29 Mar 2025

TPS Turku
3-2
FC Lahti
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Finland - Ykköscup – 2025

TPS Turku vs FC Lahti Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 28% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.6pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.1pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

TPS Turku v FC Lahti — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 38%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards –

TPS Turku vs FC Lahti Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Lahti
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
23.10.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-1 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
20.10.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
17.09.2020 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
25.07.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
30.09.2018 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-5 HT 1-4 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
15.06.2018 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku edged past FC Lahti 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 37%) promised a tight game; TPS Turku found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Lahti led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for TPS Turku and 1.67 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs FC Lahti?

TPS Turku 3-2 FC Lahti in the Finland - Ykköscup on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 41%, draw 22%, FC Lahti 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TPS Turku) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✗ BTTS No
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