Barcelona 4-2 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Apr 2024

Barcelona
4-2 HT 1-2
Valencia
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Barcelona vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
6.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.55
X/1
13%
3.63
X/2
8%
16.25
X/X
10%
7.62
2/1
9%
20.7
2/2
8%
11.9
2/X
5%
19.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Barcelona win — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-11.9pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.5pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barcelona v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
2.28/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.70
+17% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
506 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.9 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Barcelona vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Valencia
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.27 xG 0.72
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
490 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
05.03.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.10.2022 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.02.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-4 HT 0-3 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
17.10.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 2-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
02.05.2021 Valencia Valencia 2-3 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Barcelona 4-2 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
4-2
AWAY Valencia
2.21 xG 2.13
80% Ball Possession 20%
27 Total Shots 5
13 Shots on Target 3
15 Corners 1
677 Passes 108
91% Pass Accuracy 58%
51 Box Touches 12
29 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona got the better of Valencia 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barcelona had 80% of the ball to Valencia's 20%, shots finished 27-5, expected goals 2.21 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Barcelona and 0.83 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Valencia?

Barcelona 4-2 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 57%, draw 22%, Valencia 21%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →