Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 29 Apr 2024

Dunkerque
1-3 HT 1-0
Auxerre
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Dunkerque vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.73
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 26% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.35
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
11%
8.62
X/2
13%
4.23
X/X
8%
5.14
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.34
2/X
10%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunkerque v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +19%
0.89/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.95
-20% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +34%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
17.9 Crosses 20.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4

Dunkerque vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Auxerre
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.85 xG 1.86
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
242 Passes 444
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
08.01.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-2 HT 1-2 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
30.04.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
11.12.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-2 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
24.04.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 1-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
22.12.2020 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2

Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
1-3
AWAY Auxerre
0.48 xG 1.72
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 9
276 Passes 448
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
6 Box Touches 31
6 Crosses 24
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre saw off Dunkerque 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Dunkerque had 41% of the ball to Auxerre's 59%, shots finished 5-23, expected goals 0.48 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auxerre led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Dunkerque and 1.33 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Auxerre?

Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 2 on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 28%, draw 25%, Auxerre 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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