Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 TS Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.49
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.79
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.19
6+ Goals
6%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 41% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
63%
-17.7pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.7pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+10.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.2pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY TS Galaxy EU Bookmakers 17%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.58/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.44
+11% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
16.1 Crosses 13.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
4W-1D-1L
AWAY TS Galaxy
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.64 xG 0.83
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
515 Passes 250
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2023 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 2-2 HT 2-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
24.01.2023 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 1-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
10.08.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 HT 0-1 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy GAFPSL
02.03.2022 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 0-3 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
19.09.2021 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 HT 0-0 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy GAFPSL
09.05.2021 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
3-0
AWAY TS Galaxy
1.03 xG 0.82
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
418 Passes 157
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 4
11 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs TS Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns ran out comfortable winners over TS Galaxy 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 67% of the ball to TS Galaxy's 33%, shots finished 10-2, expected goals 1.03 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.67 for TS Galaxy.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs TS Galaxy?

Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 TS Galaxy in the South Afrika - Premier League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs TS Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 45%, draw 31%, TS Galaxy 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →