Estrela 0-3 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Apr 2024

Estrela
0-3 HT 0-1
Farense
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estrela vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.86
Over
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.31
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.57
6+
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.31 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.0
X/1
13%
4.37
X/2
7%
8.39
X/X
16%
4.54
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
13%
6.3
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.6pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Farense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 27%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
0.94/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.27
+35% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
16.6 Crosses 19.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Estrela vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.13 xG 1.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
269 Passes 297
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
03.02.2023 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 1-1 Estrela Estrela POR2
13.08.2022 Estrela Estrela 1-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
28.01.2022 Farense Farense 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
21.08.2021 Estrela Estrela 3-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR2

Estrela 0-3 Farense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-3
AWAY Farense
2.18 xG 2.39
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
339 Passes 197
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
42 Box Touches 19
46 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense ran out comfortable winners over Estrela 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Estrela had 60% of the ball to Farense's 40%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 2.18 to 2.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Estrela and 1.40 for Farense.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Farense?

Estrela 0-3 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Estrela 42%, draw 32%, Farense 26%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Estrela), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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