Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Antalyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 29 Apr 2024

Fatih Karagümrük
4-1 HT 1-0
Antalyaspor
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 25% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.07
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.84
X/2
9%
6.38
X/X
14%
4.73
2/1
11%
25.5
2/2
7%
4.52
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fatih Karagümrük v Antalyaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Antalyaspor EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.37/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.52
-20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
477 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
14.7 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Antalyaspor
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.31 xG 1.56
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
453 Passes 291
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 2-1 HT 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
29.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
06.11.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 4-2 HT 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
13.02.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
21.09.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
28.04.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 HT 2-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL

Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Antalyaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
4-1
AWAY Antalyaspor
1.72 xG 0.45
33% Ball Possession 67%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
255 Passes 572
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 12
7 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük swept aside Antalyaspor 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 33% of the ball to Antalyaspor's 67%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.72 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Antalyaspor led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.00 for Antalyaspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Antalyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 47%, draw 28%, Antalyaspor 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Over 2.5
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