El Nacional 1-4 Universidad Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 29 May 2026

📅29/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
7.78
Draw
27%
5.15
Away
59%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.29
Over 2.5
45%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
20%
X/X
15%
2/1
2%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
10%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
16%
+10.4pp
59%
Away Win
74%
-14.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
40%
+14.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
60%
-14.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Universidad Catolica EU Bookmakers 78%
+80% / +80% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.30/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.65
+58% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Universidad Catolica
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
25.08.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica nan
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Universidad Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universidad Catolica ran out comfortable winners over El Nacional 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Universidad Catolica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Universidad Catolica?

El Nacional 1-4 Universidad Catolica in the Ecuador - Cup on 29/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Universidad Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Universidad Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 14%, draw 27%, Universidad Catolica 59%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universidad Catolica), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universidad Catolica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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