New York City FC 4-2 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Jun 2024

📅29/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.0
X/1
11%
4.34
X/2
8%
8.88
X/X
11%
6.06
2/1
10%
20.4
2/2
13%
5.96
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · 1/X at 14.0 — our 12% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.5pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +40%
2.07/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.47
+8% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.9 Crosses 15.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Orlando City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.97 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
369 Passes 342
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
18.05.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
02.10.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
29.08.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 2-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
26.07.2021 New York City FC New York City FC 5-0 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
09.05.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
4-2
AWAY Orlando City
1.78 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
499 Passes 414
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC saw off Orlando City 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York City FC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, New York City FC had 53% of the ball to Orlando City's 47%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.78 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for New York City FC and 0.83 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Orlando City?

New York City FC 4-2 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 44%, draw 29%, Orlando City 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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