Gimnasia La Plata 2-3 Union Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 29 Oct 2024

Gimnasia La Plata
2-3 HT 1-1
Union Santa Fe
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Gimnasia La Plata vs Union Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
32%
2.77
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
67%
1.41
Over 2.5
33%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
15%
6.6
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.58
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.69
X/2
9%
6.15
X/X
18%
3.2
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
9%
5.23
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 67% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+2.2pp
32%
Draw
32%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.4pp
67%
Under 2.5
67%
-0.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
33%
+0.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.2pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gimnasia La Plata v Union Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.20/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.26
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
269 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 70%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.3 Crosses 19.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Gimnasia La Plata vs Union Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Union Santa Fe
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 266
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.06.2023 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 2-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
19.08.2022 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 0-2 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
23.04.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
20.09.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
13.03.2021 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 1-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
20.10.2019 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ

Gimnasia La Plata 2-3 Union Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
2-3
AWAY Union Santa Fe
1.81 xG 1.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 224
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gimnasia La Plata vs Union Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Santa Fe nicked a narrow win over Gimnasia La Plata 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gimnasia La Plata at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gimnasia La Plata had 57% of the ball to Union Santa Fe's 43%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.81 to 1.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimnasia La Plata had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 0.67 for Union Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Gimnasia La Plata vs Union Santa Fe?

Gimnasia La Plata 2-3 Union Santa Fe in the Argentina - Premier League on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnasia La Plata vs Union Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimnasia La Plata win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gimnasia La Plata 41%, draw 32%, Union Santa Fe 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gimnasia La Plata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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