Sambenedettese 2-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Pro League Cup, 29 Oct 2025

📅29/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 34% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.7pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sambenedettese EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 39%
+52% / +52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/2.00
+66% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
269 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sambenedettese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ascoli
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2025 Ascoli Ascoli 1-0 HT 1-0 Sambenedettese Sambenedettese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sambenedettese
2-1
AWAY Ascoli
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sambenedettese vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sambenedettese nicked a narrow win over Ascoli 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Sambenedettese found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sambenedettese had 43% of the ball to Ascoli's 57%, shots finished 11-5.

What was the final score of Sambenedettese vs Ascoli?

Sambenedettese 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Pro League Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sambenedettese vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sambenedettese win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sambenedettese 35%, draw 30%, Ascoli 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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