Al Nasr 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League Cup, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒15:40 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
46%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.42
6+ Goals
8%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 33% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
33%
-3.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nasr EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.29/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/1.14
+64% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -50%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.5 Crosses 14.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nasr
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.00 xG 2.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 5
332 Passes 352
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2025 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
29.12.2024 Al Nasr Al Nasr 5-5 HT 0-2 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAELK
23.12.2024 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
01.05.2024 Al Nasr Al Nasr 4-3 HT 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAECK
16.05.2021 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAECK
17.01.2020 Al Nasr Al Nasr 2-1 HT 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAELK
POST-MATCH Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nasr squeezed past Shabab Al Ahli 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shabab Al Ahli at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shabab Al Ahli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Al Nasr and 2.50 for Shabab Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Al Nasr 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli in the UAE - League Cup on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shabab Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Nasr 30%, draw 24%, Shabab Al Ahli 46%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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